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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still