Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
