A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
